A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
